How many people are critically ill in Africa? And how many are dying?

The African Critical Illness Outcomes Study (ACIOS) is the first continent-wide study into the prevalence and mortality of critical illness.

Involving 20,000 patients who were 18+ years old in 180 hospitals in 22 countries across Africa, the investigators classified participants as ‘critically ill’ if any vital sign was severely deranged. The specific patients were followed-up for 7 days to assess outcomes.

What did the study show?

• 12.5% of patients were critically ill

• 21% of the critically ill died within 7 days

Using this data, plus some other evidence and assumptions, it is possible to estimate what this means across the whole population of Africa.

Estimate of the Number of Critically Ill patients in Africa

Table 1: A calculation for the number of critically ill patients in Africa

Using 132,455 critically ill patients as a basis, combined with the mortality rate found in the ACIOS study, its possible to estimate the number of critically ill patients dying each year.

Estimate of the Number of Critically Ill Patients Dying each year

Table 2: A calculation for the number of critically ill patients dying in Africa each year

These calculations illustrate the huge burden of critical illness in Africa. But ACIOS provides hope of a feasible, low-cost solution. Another ACIOS finding:

56% of critically ill patients are not receiving the most basic life-saving essential emergency and critical care (EECC) such as oxygen and fluids

EECC is the simple, low-cost care that should be provided to all critically ill patients anywhere in the world. We know that giving critically ill patients EECC treatments such as oxygen and intravenous fluids saves lives. If EECC was provided to all critically ill patients, many lives would be saved. If just 10% of these estimated deaths due to critical illness were averted, that would save 524,553 lives in Africa per year.